Expanding on last week’s entry…
HLG believes that there is an increasingly good chance that the retrogression is solved in next 3-4 months via Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR). The approximate time frame would be this: the House announced their CIR proposal (called Strive Act) in March.
We have heard from several sources that the Senate is set release their version in early May. Their version (like the Senate’s) is a broad proposal and has bi-partisan support. The Senate has formally set the last two weeks of May aside for immigration debate. There is a very good chance that the Senate actually passes a bill in late May/ early June.
And that’s where it gets trickier. The key is that the House continues the momentum and pushes through a bill in June. If they do, Congress will have to take both bills to committee, which is the process whereby the Congress irons out the differences between the bills. The expectation is that the differences will be minor. The President will surely sign the bill since he’s been a CIR proponent since Day One of his presidency.
Putting all of this together it is more likely than not that we have a CIR bill in July/August. All of that having been said, we’re not only relying on CIR. There is a continuing push for a “bridge,” which is a small piece of legislation to immediately, but temporarily, end the retrogression and bridge the gap until the full CIR can get passed into law. The odd-reality is that the more likely CIR looks, the less likely the bridge looks.